• Bobby Bishop

Trey Lance Scouting Report: 2021 NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Updated: Oct 22, 2020


In his second 2021 NFL Draft prospect profile, GridironXtra Draft Scout Bobby Bishop previews North Dakota State quarterback, Trey Lance.


Lance announced this week that he has chosen to declare for the 2021 NFL Draft which will have NFL quarterback-needy teams licking their chops at the chance of drafting the next great dual threat QB to enter the league.


Follow Bobby on Twitter for more 2021 NFL Draft opinion and analysis: @imbobbybish


Profile

Trey Lance – QB, North Dakota State

Height - 6’4” Weight - 221 lbs Class - RS Sophomore Hometown - Marshall, MN


Biography


Trey Lance was a three-star prospect from Marshall Senior High School, only rated as the 49th best dual threat QB in the nation. He committed to play college football for North Dakota State University, the FCS powerhouse. As a freshman, he redshirted.

As a redshirt freshman, he won the starting job and took off running. He threw for 2786 yards and 28 touchdowns on a 66.9 completion percentage. He ran for 1100 yards and 14 touchdowns. He didn’t throw a single interception all season. He was awarded the Jerry Rice award for best freshman in the FCS.

He always received the Walter Payton award, which is basically the FCS Heisman. He was the first freshman to ever win the Walter Payton award. He led NDSU to an undefeated record and a national championship.

In his only Fall of 2020 football game against Central Arkansas, Trey Lance started off shaky, perhaps knowing that his draft stock was going to heavily rely on this game. He showed resilience by leading a second half comeback, accounting for four touchdowns along the way.


Strengths


His biggest strength is that he takes care of the ball. Lance had a few dangerous incompletions and dropped interceptions, but zero interceptions during his redshirt freshman season. He threw one pick in his game against Central Arkansas He senses pressure well from the pocket.

He climbs back into the pocket very well. He has great arm strength—can throw 55 yards effortlessly and accurately. His ball placement is solid. He can make any throw on the field. He has good velocity, but also the ability to place the ball. He is hard to bring down as a runner. He’s shifty and strong, with good vision. He’s a winner with experience winning a championship. He has a lot of nerve and confidence.

Lance is accurate passing on the run and very good at spotting an open receiver while scrambling. He is very good reading option plays, rarely making the wrong read. Coaches rave about him as a high character person.


Weaknesses


NDSU is a run heavy offense. He only went over 30 attempts passing once (31), averaging less than 18 passes a game; however, transitioning to a high volume passer shouldn’t be too difficult for him.

He produced a lot of designed runs in college, rarely sliding to protect his body. He has no injury history, but he needs to limit hits on his body.

He doesn’t have the perfect footwork. On screens, he sometimes stays flatfooted to get the ball out quicker, which led to some of his incompletions. He occasionally is antsy with his feet. His playing competition was not as high as it could have been, so we don’t know for sure how he will do against more difficult opponents.

He needs to get better at throwing the ball away. He is so used to escaping pressure that he never gives up on a play to avoid a loss. He sometimes scrambles too early and could stand to get a better feel for the pocket.

Lance doesn’t always sense pressure pre snap and as a result, doesn’t make adjustments, something that will develop with time. He rarely has to read through multiple progressions. His first option is usually open. He will have to develop his ability to read a defense.


NFL Comparison


This is close between Dak Prescott and Donavon McNabb, but I’ll go with McNabb. Similar big play ability and running ability. Similar ability to extend plays. They both take care of the ball (McNabb is tied for 12th all-time in pass interception percentage). Both are similar heights, but Lance is skinnier.


Overview


He is more than a game manager. He has that ability, but he also has the dual threat abilities to make explosive plays as a passer or as a runner. His ability to extend plays is an attribute that NFL teams value highly. After participating in NDSU’s sole Fall football game, Trey Lance declared for the 2021 NFL Draft. He is a lock to be selected in the first round, as there is a pretty big gap between Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and the rest of the draft eligible QBs. If he tests well in the combine and makes a team fall in love with him, he may go higher than most people expect. He should be a very good QB in the NFL.


Projection


3rd QB taken. Top 10 pick.

Film Room


RS Freshman Season Vs. Butler (2019) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPowVFoSJY8 Vs. Northern Iowa (2019) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsldJ_4pMQ8 Vs. Youngstown State (2019) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgAvb-auTJI Vs. Southern Illinois (2019) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAKoFbSRppc Vs. Nichols (2019) FCS Playoffs - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asd31Yj5ST4 Vs. Illinois State (2019) FCS Quarterfinal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fazhhkCJTwM Vs. Montana State (2019) FCS Semifinal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXfWyjwiXkI Vs. James Madison (2020) FCS Championship - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_UQw4URP7E

RS Sophomore Season

Vs. Central Arkansas (2020) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eky0Yy8_eOI

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© 2020 by GRIDIRON/XTRA.

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